How to Use ‘Expected Goals’ for Betting


Growing in popularity all the time, using Expected Goals is a brilliant way to help you with your football betting.

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Serving as a great metric to determine how a team performs both on the attacking and defensive sides of the game, XG (as it’s commonly referred to) can uncover some more usable, detailed information than just looking at metrics like results or shots per game.

Whether you’re looking at a team’s XG (Expected Goals) or XGA (Expected Goals Against), you can certainly track how a team is performing on either end, with this allowing you to see the quality of chances they’re creating and quality of chances they’re conceding.

Courtesy of XGTips

Courtesy of XGTips

With every chance or chance conceded given an Expected Goals reading, this allows you to see how good a certain team are at getting into top scoring positions or allowing the opposition to expose them to produce promising shots.

Courtesy of Bet FileCourtesy of Bet File

Obviously different efforts on net record different levels of XG, as a penalty will differ from things such as long range shots or strikes from an angle.

It’s important to keep in mind that different models are applied by different companies or statistical providers, so it pays to do your research, for there is often a difference between each one. Interpreting the data coherently is another factor you’ll need to consider, which is something you’ll improve on as you become more familiar with this tool.

Courtesy of PinnacleCourtesy of Pinnacle

When parlayed with other statistics and analysis, Expected Goals can unquestionably give you an edge in your selections, as it gives you a good gauge of a team’s consistency and how they are performing defensively and offensively.

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