The green lumber fallacy

Green Lumber Strategy


Originally termed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book “Antifragile”, the Green Lumber Fallacy is an interesting topic to cover. 

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Getting its name from a former lumber salesman who was very successful in his field, but amazingly had no idea the green timber he was selling was green due to it being freshly cut. Instead, he thought it was painted, which is quite remarkable. Equally striking was how this lack of knowledge didn’t hinder his capacity to make a good living selling it.

Courtesy of Hardware Zone

This explanation from FS Blog offers a fine summary of this fallacy, with it stating: “What works in the real world does not necessarily match our stories of why it works. Unimportant details can often seduce us into thinking we know the reasons for something when we really don’t.”


So essentially in a betting sense it means even though you have the knowledge of a particular sport, it doesn’t mean you have the understanding or know how to bet on the sport successfully.

Courtesy of Coffee and Junk

This should encourage you to learn more about betting to complement your knowledge of the sport you intend to bet on. This can be done through persistence, continual learning and practice. 


All in all, it’s important to remember your knowledge is not useless, just how it doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll be a good gambler because of this. It’s all about applying your information in the right direction. And that’s the reason Taleb phrased this intriguing term.

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