The Monty Hall Problem

Monty Hall Problem

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In our latest blog article, we hone our focus towards the Monty Hall Problem and how it works.

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To give an explanation of this conundrum, Betfile offers an excellent summation, noting: “The ‘Monty Hall problem’ (as it has become known) is a great example of how, when presented with the task of choosing one favourable outcome against two unfavourable outcomes, we find it almost impossible to correctly address the likelihood of success.”

Named after a game show where the contestants were offered the chance to win a car if they picked the correct door to open of the three available to them, it’s an interesting theory.

Courtesy of Wikipedia

To begin, the player picks a door, but it doesn’t immediately open. Then, the host opens the door and the car isn’t there, meaning you then have two choices available. You then get asked if you want to switch doors. From here, the majority of people believe they have a 50/50 chance of winning, where in reality it’s better than this. In fact, you actually have a 66% percent chance of winning, despite this seeming strange.

The below table created by Statistics by Jim gives a fine reference, where he gives the outcomes of nine scenarios, with the final result ending in a 66% win rate.

Courtesy of Statistics by Jim

While it’s very hard to digest and challenges the way we think, the Monty Hall Problem has caught out many all over. In terms of betting, you can use these principles when working out value and the probability of your selections winning.

So basically if you enhance your awareness and research regarding your picks, you’ll be much better placed to come out on top. The principles of the Monty Problem can definitely help you achieve this.

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