Green Lumber Fallacy Sports expertise

Green Lumber Fallacy: Sports Expertise Does Not Mean Betting Success

One of the greatest statisticians today Nassim Taleb gave one interesting anecdote in his influential book ‘Antifragile.’

The book recounts the story of a fellow named Joe Siegel. Mister Siegel is one of the most successful traders in a commodity called ‘green lumber.’ He had no idea why it is green, and incorrectly thought that the lumber’s color is such because somebody painted it green. However, the truth is the wood is green because it is freshly cut and had not been dried. Despite his ignorance of the nature of commodity, he is really good and successful at selling it.

Trying to be a profitable punter? Check out our guide to becoming a professional sports bettor.

One would assume that Mister Siegel must be knowledgeable with the origin of green lumber’s colour. But it was proven otherwise because being ignorant in a field does not mean being the same to another one.

An analogous story tells the story of Thales who reserves presses ahead of the olive harvest at a discount. Thales’ plan, however, is to rent them out at a higher price when the demand peaks. Thales could tell when the demand will rise because he has the ability to correctly predict when good harvests will be available in the market. The philosopher Aristotle then inaccurately attributes his success to his ability to accurately foretell the weather.

Green Lumber Fallacy in sports betting

Just like in the case given above, a lot of people expect successful sports bettors to hold a high degree of expertise in anything about sports.

This is not always true. For example, a mathematician who is an expert in calculating probability and is comfortable in playing with numbers could accurately predict the outcome of matches, and thus become successful in betting, even without the knowledge of who’s who or what’s what about teams, players, and coaches.

One does not need a deep knowledge of the players and coaches or history of the Premier League team Arsenal to be able to predict whether they will lose this time or continue their unbeaten streak.

The same goes for someone knowledgeable in sports. Someone could be a scholar of the early life of the Portuguese athlete Cristiano Ronaldo, but could also possess no idea whether he will score two goals in a match between Juventus and Inter Milan. Sports journalists or the paparazzi could know every inch of detail in the life of a sports superstar, but still be bad in betting.

Although, a little knowledge of what is happening in the lives of players or teams of whole leagues could could be a huge aid for the punter, it is not a necessity in placing stakes on the squads or athletes that you think will bring the bacon home.

False Correlations

The Green Lumber does not only tells how sports expertise does not always guarantee success in betting and vice versa, it also relevant in the practice of the punter as it cautions one to not correlate things mistakenly to avoid unwanted results.

For instance, people might correlate a Golden State bad loss to an injury that recently inflicted the Warriors’ top guard Stephen Curry. Different factors, however, could be at play such as a decline of performance in other top players of the team such as Kevin Durant or Klay Thompson.

In another way around, bettors might skip betting on the Golden State in cases when Steph Curry is injured, but the Warriors will actually continue to perform well as there are other good player in the team such as Durant or Thompson.

So, do not worry about being short of rumours in the dramas of the world of sports. If the maths have been done and the confidence says place the bets, then place the bets.

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Here’s What You Should Do When You Lose a Bet

How to Handle Betting Losses

What’s your reaction after a goal was struck by the opposite team you were betting on? Are you thinking about how to get your money back at any cost? Do you feel any rage or frustration? These are common reactions.

Bad runs can cause endless anger and frustration, but losing stakes are almost unavoidable when it comes to sports betting. Even the most skilled bettors has experienced a time where things are going worse for them. However, the most important thing is how you handle these losses.

Trying to be a profitable punter? Check out our guide to becoming a professional sports bettor.

Here are ways to help you cope with the damages of losing a bet

But first things first, you should know one of the golden rules of betting; make sure you only bet with money you can afford to lose. This makes it easier to deal with a bad run.

Take a Break

Imagine you’re a football coach who just witnessed his team lose after a hard-fought tournament. The last thing you need to do is to go straight into another intense fight. The team needs to take a break to reflect on their tactics, and assess the damages. The same principles can be useful to handling a bad run. If you feel like you did poor decision-making skills, or applied your stakes inconsistently, simply take a much needed break to assess yourself. Give yourself some time to look back, and work out why you’ve made a poor decision. There’s no harm in taking a break. Slowing down can even help you cool off and reexamine your strategies.

Analyse your Tactics

Do you ever get that annoying feeling where you are trying something that just won’t work out for you? Did you stick to your staking tactics? Did you analyse a particular match as you had planned to? Was there something wrong in the plan you made? You have to be honest with yourself in order to reevaluate your game plan.

Professional punter Patrick Veitch, one of the most feared full time gamblers in the UK, is continuously developing his approaches in the battle to stay ahead of the game. There are actually vulnerabilities of sticking to only one strategy – it can be the cause of failure among punters. If your tactics before seemed to work out in the beginning, it’s possible that there are some holes in it that caused you to have a bad run now. Don’t always insist on your initial beliefs, and be open to more strategies. Take a look at your betting history, and review your choices.

A good habit to get into is analysing yourself. See where you went wrong, and make notes. There’s no better way to improve yourself than accepting a loss, and working your way through it.

Play more carefully

When you’ve experienced losses, it’s tempting to get the money you lost by placing bigger stakes. It’s actually a bettor’s fallacy, and could damage more than it could do good. More carefully thought through bets are usually the most successful ones.

Cut out the bets you think will help you win, or merely popular bets when a live fixture is on, and focus solely on the aspect/s you know the best. Simplify and use a sports trading platform to get ahold of odds from numerous books. Learn to stay consistent, and stay within the limits you’ve set for yourself.

Understand that losing is a part of the game

Even the best and professional punters experience losses when betting. Losing is a common possibility that all bettors have to deal with as soon as they place their stakes. But every bad run is a good opportunity for all bettors to review their staking tactics, and bet choices. And rather than beating yourself up, look for ways to improve yourself and do better on your next game.

You can even take a moment to sort yourself out, reconsider your strategies, and bet again when you’re all set and ready. Always remember that learning to control your emotions after dealing with a bad run is without a doubt the greatest piece of self-development you can ever get.

Now pick yourself up, prepare more carefully and thoroughly, and have fun!

Are you feeling more confident now? Log in to your Vodds account and check out available tennis and football matches you can place bets on, or register if you don’t have an account yet.

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Common Mistakes Sports Bettors Make

Mistakes are unavoidable especially when you’re new to sports betting. Sports betting is not something that can ever truly be mastered. You can’t always expect things to go where you want it to. Even if you follow all the advice in numerous sports betting guides, it’s still highly possible that you’ll commit even at least a few mistakes. It’s important not to let the worry of making one stress you out too much. It should be noted that mistakes are part of the learning process.

Trying to be a profitable punter? Check out our guide to becoming a professional sports bettor.

However, don’t think that mistakes stop as soon as you’ve gained experiences though since even the most successful bettors still make one every now and then.

Common Mistakes Sports Bettors Make

Simply being aware of such mistakes means you’re less likely to make them in the future.

Not understanding the basics of sports betting

This is one of the most common mistakes we can see from rookie sports bettors. Beginners tend to jump into things without having proper knowledge and understanding of the basics, which can greatly limit the possibility of a successful bet. With a small amount of dedicated time and research, beginners, even experts, can make better-informed assessments when betting. It is also important to take note of the basic sports betting strategy to improve one’s opportunities in winning.

Placing too many wagers

This mistake is often disregarded. This important aspect when betting on sports is having the patience to wait for the right opportunities to earn some money down. Unfortunately, patience is not something all bettors possess, especially the beginners. Most beginners place too many wagers, which is not ideal. A much better approach when betting is to be selective. Try focusing in one or two sports instead of placing stakes on each and every competition or event. Try looking for occasions where it’s possible to make good decisions about what might happen.

Mismanaging your bankroll

This is the mistake we can often see from numerous sports bettors. Many people are betting without any bankroll management. Rather, they just bet as much as they think they should on their sports picks without any specific plan behind it. By doing this, you are increasing the chances of exhausting all your betting money.  To avoid this, you should set aside enough money that is intended for the purpose of sports betting. The money should come from extra funds and not from the cash needed to pay for necessities. Bettors should also be willing to accept the risk of losing this bankroll without it having a large effect on financial priorities.

Not choosing the right bookmaker

Bettors have access to an endless variety of bookmakers they can choose from. Just like any other industry, there are different tactics to bookmaking and everyone will claim to be the best. However, bettors should be careful in analysing which bookmaker offers a lot more than the other. Choosing a bookmaker can either make or break your sports bets. To make things easier for bettors, VOdds trading platform gives access to numerous top Asian sportsbooks that offers the best real-time odds and competitive prices to its clients which can also multiply one’s betting opportunities.

Chasing Losses

Something to also avoid is chasing losses. Many bettors are guilty of committing this mistake. It’s easy to lose a bet and then quickly want to make another one to make up for it. However, when you bet based on a previous loss, you are likely to create a less informed choice, making you prone to another mistake, which can also increase the probability of losing again. When you lost a bet, it’s a good thing to let it sink in and take a break to reflect on what happened. Don’t do the mistake of rushing out and make another bet when you just lost one. Rather, place your time and energy in exploring other value bets.

Keep these in mind when you bet on sports to minimize your errors. Log in to VOdds for the highest real-time odds and prices or simply register if you don’t have an account yet.

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A Guide to Successful Tennis Betting

How to Be Successful in Tennis Betting

Tennis is popular all around the world for being a fast-moving sport. It is also one of the most common sports to bet on. But in order for bettors to fully understand how to productively bet on tennis, bettors must first learn the basics of the sport, the factors to consider, the variety of betting markets, as well as the different styles of play and court surfaces which can also impact the result of the bets.

Aside from football, tennis betting is one of the features available in the VOdds trading platform. After knowing the rules on how to bet on tennis, punters can now choose from a wide range of markets and competitions to place their stakes on.

Are you new to sports betting? Check out our ultimate guide.

The rules of tennis

Tennis is a sport that is played on a rectangular court with a high net in the middle. It can be played individually against one opponent (singles), or in pairs which consist of two teams of two players each (doubles). In order to score a point, one must stop the other player from returning the ball to their respective sides. A single match is won by scoring a total of four points or at least two more points than the opponent.

In tennis, a ‘set,’ consists of six games, and a ‘match’ consists of three or five sets. Men’s tournaments consists of a best-of-five sets at major events such as the ‘Grand Slam,’ while other professional tennis matches, including women’s tournaments, play a best-of-three.

Each of the players alternate their turns to serve, and when a player wins a game on their serve, it is referred to as a ‘hold,’ and when they win a game on their opponent’s serve, it is referred to as a ‘break.’

Factors to consider before betting

There are several factors that need considering when learning how to successfully bet on tennis. First, it is important to know that different players have different skills, strengths and weaknesses. These aspects can affect your chances in betting depending on the suitability of these factors on certain occasions.

Another thing to consider is where the game is played. Tennis is played on four surfaces; either on clay, grass, hard court, or carpet. A player’s performance can vary on these different kinds of court surfaces because of the speed at which both the ball and player can travel.

Bettors should also consider the varying performance and skill sets of the players. Experienced tennis punters know how a certain player plays, and what kind of player  their bet will play against. At a basic level, it is also very significant to take note that tennis players can be either left or right-handed.

Tennis betting – kinds of tournaments

Major tournaments in tennis are called “Grand Slams.” Major events consist of four Grand Slam competitions each year; the Australian and US open, which are both played in hard court, the French open in clay, and the Wimbledon in grass. Both men and women compete in Grand Slam tournaments.

They also take part in other major tennis events like the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) for men, and the Women’s Tennis Association events throughout the year. These events are also used to rank professional tennis players. Other events include the Davis Cup, Indian Wells Masters, and more.

Betting Market

One thing to also consider is knowing where to place your bets. As for betting markets, VOdds is a sports trading platform that gives the easiest access to top Asian bookies. VOdds offers several markets in the platform for minor and major tennis tournaments, and other events. Among these are:


  • Total Games Over/Under  – The bookmaker predicts how many games will be played in a match. The total score of both players in all sets is the number of games played. For example, a set is predicted to have 20.5 games (0.5 is added to ensure that the exact total games cannot be reached), punters can now bet that there will be over 20.5 games, or under 20.5 games. This is close to a 50/50 wagering proposition.
  • Total Sets Over/Under – This is where bettors wage depending on how many total sets will be played in the match. Unlike the Over/Under total games, this is not a 50/50 wagering proposition as one option is much more likely to happen than the other. For example, a bookmaker may offer over or under 2.5 sets in a game.

Asian Handicap

  • Set Handicap – This changes the betting odds greatly as a handicap is based on added sets. For example, Maria Sharapova -1.5 sets vs Shuai Peng +1.5, bettors are being fronted with 1.5 sets. At +1.5, she wins for betting purposes if she comes out victorious in the match outright, or loses the match by 1 set only. If now, Sharapova -1.5 is the winner for the betting purposes.
  • Game Handicap – This is the individual scores of each sets in a match. If a player wins 6-3, 6-4, with no third set played in a best of three, they automatically win by 5 games (3 in the first set + 2 in the second). This market works in almost the same procedure as the set handicap but is based on games. It is available for betting match winners, and also for betting individual sets.


This is one of the most common forms of betting, and is also the simplest way for bettors to understand the costs of stakes. For example, if you placed a £10 stake on Rafael Nadal to win at odds of 4.250, you would win £42.50 though it would include your initial £10 bet. Your total profit would be £32.50. You would win nothing if the result ended in a defeat or draw for Nadal.

Now that you’ve learned the basics of tennis betting, why don’t you test your knowledge by placing your stakes in our newly launched tennis platform?

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Read Next: Your Complete Guide to Tennis Betting

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