sports betting odds

5 Factors That Affect Sports Betting Odds

One of the reasons why bettors should be updated about the forecast of odds from sports book makers is that odds are always mutable even to the last minute. Some punters get irritated by the change in odds by bookies. From giants play makers like Ladbrokes, Betfair, and William Hill down to Asian bookies – Pinnacle, SBOBET, and SingBet, all are the same. But no one is to blame except the various factors that affect the odds that bookies are giving for matches.

Trying to be a profitable punter? Check out our guide to becoming a professional sports bettor.

Five factors at play that influence how bookmakers calculate the odds

Head to Head records

There are cases when teams display incredible strength and performance when matched with a specific teams, while in decline if let to face to another team. This is the reason why head to head records should be considered in calculating odds.

Injuries and suspensions

There are unexpected and unavoidable cases when athletes gain injuries or red card suspensions. In some cases, those players are key to the team’s performance in leagues, so their absence will pose a serious threat to the play. For instance, Los Angeles Lakers have been good in their performances earlier in the current NBA season. However, they lost grip in their standing in the table when key player LeBron James suffered a groin injury.

Team lineup

This is important to be considered in making the odds of the game as some players in the squad are replaced if the team manager saw it as more appropriate. Even teams could lose while a key player is in the squad if a complementing player is absent. For example, there are games when the Golden State Warriors are peaking strength when Stephen Curry is complemented by Klay Thompson, and declining when Thompson is absent with an injury.

Current form

This is a big factor in considering odds as teams could be expected to lose again when possessing a terrible form or win again when otherwise. However, there are times when a win will pop out of a series of losses but those are exceptions rather then the rule.

Home and Away records

This is true especially to teams that perform better in home games than away games. There are also cases when squads are good both in home and away games. Rarely though, some teams are stronger in away matches then home games.

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Best Books to Sharpen your Sports Betting Skills

Bettors should continuously look for new ways to further develop their skills. One of the ways to enhance your sports betting skills is to read books. Reading books that are related to the field you want to improve on will definitely give you far greater knowledge. It will also help you get to know yourself better and determine if you have what it takes to be a successful bettor.

Trying to learn the ups and downs of sports betting? Check out Sports Betting: the Good and the Bad.

There’s always more to learn about the concept and the more advanced mechanics on sports betting.

Sports Betting Books You Don’t Want to Miss

Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong     

This book discussed the many features of betting and it’s definitely worth the read. It covers a wide range of different wagering techniques. In order to fully grasp the things discussed in the book, a solid knowledge and understanding of mathematics is required. The book also contains a few sample problems and solutions that will help put a lot of the techniques stated into perspective.

The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver

This book by Nate Silver isn’t really about betting strategies but its content is definitely worthy of inclusion. It provides a very thought-provoking point of view at the importance of having a predictive ability, which is a skill that is extremely beneficial when betting on sports.

Market Wizards: Interviews with top traders by Jack D. Schwager

Considered as one of the finest books on trading, this book is a series of interviews from different kinds of bettors. It provides an insight and understanding into the minds of top traders and gives the reader an idea on what it takes to be successful in the field. It discusses the important of discipline and developing a strategy that suits you.

How to Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar: The truth about sports tipsters by Joseph Buchdal

This book offers an in-depth analysis on the records of tipsters. It involves a s lot of mathematical and scientific depth that will enhance your skills in analysing betting tips and odds. In this book, the reader will be able to conclude what it takes to be a good tipster and deciding the value of a tipster. It also discusses the difference between having skills and luck when betting. This book is perfect for bettors who want guides from a professional tipster.

Football Fortunes by William Hunter

Football Fortunes contains a lot of expert advices that caters to both beginners and experienced bettors. This book begins with the basics of result predictions and the rule of probability and odds. It also covers comprehensive explanations of different staking strategies on football betting. The reader will also gain some knowledge as the book delves into the history of football betting.

There’s always a lot of rooms for improvement. Take some time to read these books and you might find yourself winning lots of bets before you know it! Log in to your VOdds account and start betting on the best online sports odds in the market, or register if you don’t have an account yet.

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Pascal's Wager Betting Advice

Betting Advice from Pascal’s Wager

Back in the 17th Century, a French philosopher named Blaise Pascal made probably one of the biggest bets in the history of humankind: that God exists. During his time, there was a brewing trend about doubting the existence of God as Renaissance and Enlightenment ideas are spreading throughout Europe.

What are the odds of Pascal’s bet? He argued that it is best to believe in a God rather than not to believe as the person will only have a finite loss such as some few pleasures and luxuries restricted by religion by doing so. The belief will also guarantee infinite gains like eternity in Heaven if turned out to be true, whereas a non-belief will assure eternal damnation. In the same way, if the person who believes in God dies and finds out that no such thing exists, he loses nothing.

The famous wager is not just useful for philosophers and theologians, but also to bettors.

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Three advises that could be extracted from Pascal’s Wager

The safest bet is the best

Pascal’s idea tells that the bettor must chose the safest bet with the least damage and cost, because a bet is nothing if the cost is as much as the loss.

Reduce as much loss as possible

As one could see, Pascal attempted to reduce losses for the wager in order to make the bet worth the place.

Calculate losses and gains before betting

In the Argument, Pascal also weigh in the cost of losses and wins. For instance, he argued that the loss is finite so the bet must be worth the while. Henceforth, he also said that the stake will pay off as an infinite gain such as eternity in a heavenly paradise awaits for those who finds out that God really exists.

Make the bet profitable

With only a few things to be sacrificed such as some sexual and moral freedom deemed taboo in the eyes of God and a heavenly and paradisiacal pay off, Pascal guarantees the believer that the Wager is profitable. This is what should also be in betting: The good bet makes less cost and more profit.

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Four Betting Tips

4 Betting Tips Taught by the Hunger Games

Association football, basketball, baseball, and tennis are just among the most popular sports that people around the world willingly subscribed to. Such sports involve a ball that if played peacefully in the right way would guarantee victory and honour for the athlete or the team.

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However, in the fictional dystopian nation of Panem in the book ‘The Hunger Games,’ sports meant no peace in people’s vocabulary. Rather, sports means blood, sacrifice and survival.

In that land called Panem, there is an annual ‘sports’ event called the Hunger Games, wherein one boy and one girl aged between 12 to 18 from each of the twelve districts that make up the nation will engage in a battle royal in one limited arena.

Out of the 24 children that will compete in the battle, only one shall leave it alive and be hailed the winner of the annual Hunger Games.

Just like sports of the real world, the fictional Hunger Games are also full of lessons and reminders that could be of practical value for bettors.

Four things the story taught people about betting

Proper strategy and tactics

For those who are not familiar with the plot, a young woman named Katniss Everdeen and a boy named Peeta Mellark are the chosen representatives of Panem’s District 12. In the story, the two kids have no idea what to do in the arena until they were introduced to and mentored by Haymitch Abernathy, the only living District 12 winner from a past Hunger Game. They are then advised to act like star-crossed lovers to win the hearts of the audience that was proven useful in their later pursuits.

The favourite is not always the victor

When the tributes from the districts were introduced to the District 1 crowd, Katniss and Peeta were no favourites that time. They are underdogs, in fact, as it has been a long time since their district had made a new victor.

Play with the rules

One immutable rule of the Hunger Games is having only one victor every year. When Katniss and Peeta were the only survivors in the ending of the game, the acting coach asked them to decide which one will leave the arena alive and which one will not. But the two players refused to obey and threatened to commit suicide by eating poisonous berries. As they are just about to swallow the berries, the coach stopped them and allowed two victors to be hailed in the games for the first time.

‘May the odds be ever in your favour.’

This famous catchphrase from the story may also be one good motto for all punters. It is also a clear reminder that the results of games are dependent on the odds whether they are in favour with one party or not.

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Why you should constantly improve your betting

Arms Race: Why You Should Constantly Improve Your Betting

Some betting strategies are famous and well-understood enough to be known by almost every bettor out there. VOdds sports trading platform understands that there are punters who are flexible enough to advance further beyond the status quo and excel over other bettors in the field, while there is also a significant number of people who are ideologically rigid and are comfortable with the old methods of how they place stakes.

Trying to be a profitable punter? Check out our guide to becoming a professional sports bettor.

Here is why the punter should not settle with traditional methods of betting

A parallel in biology

Bats and insects have evolved tactics and counter-tactics during the course of their long history of predator-prey relationship.

Bats evolved a echolocation to effectively detect and catch their food which are mostly insects, notably moths. To counter this advance method of catching prey, moths have evolved more sensitive organs to detect echolocation waves from bats, allowing them to develop more mature behaviours of evasion.

Now, some moths started to evolve ultrasonic clicks that are loud enough to confuse and counter the bat’s echolocation calls.

In order to catch up with the moths’ advance mode of evasion, bats began to develop lower or higher frequency echolocation that are out of range of the moths’ hearing ability.

In turn, the moths developed an ability to hear higher and lower frequencies of echolocation sounds, warning themselves of the impending danger.

Why you should step up your game

The arms races are pretty common in the wild, especially among animals with a predator-prey relationship. If the bats preserved the frequency of their echolocation while the moths stepped up their tactics on detection and evasion, the bats would be left with no food to feed themselves.

In the same way, if moths do not develop their hearing abilities while the bats are already using higher or lower frequency waves, their whole species will become one large buffet for the predators.

Just like bats and moths, sports bettors and bookies alike are ever developing more advanced strategies to step up their game. New methods born and die in each generation of punters and those who stick with the same mannerisms are left out from the tides.

Look for newer betting methods

There has been a time when bettors are left to their guts to decide which decision to make on betting. In the development of different strategies and tactics on how to minimise losses and maximise profits in sport trading, a small group of people stood up among the rest.

However, as more and more bettors are became aware of these advance methods, equilibrium was gradually established among them, beating the purpose of the tactics.

The Kelly Criterion for instance might be the most advanced method when it was first released, but it has since been the norm as virtually every professional punter is aware of the said theory. Thus, the thirst for a fresher ways of stepping up the game followed.

The advent of Big Data

Some bettors are using technology to their advantage. In the advent of digital forms of gathering information, some bettors are using big data and algorithms processed by supercomputers to calculate odds and generate predictions with stunning precision.

For example, statisticians in Cardiff University have used big data to look into perceived contradictions in odds from hundreds of football matches, and use this information to bet. Those who are able to exploit this development in technology in sports betting would significantly advanced way ahead from other bettors.

However, there will be a time when this advancement would be countered by a similarly advanced method. This technology might pose a serious threat to bookmakers if made widely available to punters, which may force bookies to develop more sophisticated algorithms to counter the tactic. This would thus equalize the game.

People who want to excel way further would then find newer ways to step up from the rest. They will have their time, but there will always be a time of equilibrium and so on. Such is the way of the arms race.

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Green Lumber Fallacy Sports expertise

Green Lumber Fallacy: Sports Expertise Does Not Mean Betting Success

One of the greatest statisticians today Nassim Taleb gave one interesting anecdote in his influential book ‘Antifragile.’

The book recounts the story of a fellow named Joe Siegel. Mister Siegel is one of the most successful traders in a commodity called ‘green lumber.’ He had no idea why it is green, and incorrectly thought that the lumber’s color is such because somebody painted it green. However, the truth is the wood is green because it is freshly cut and had not been dried. Despite his ignorance of the nature of commodity, he is really good and successful at selling it.

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One would assume that Mister Siegel must be knowledgeable with the origin of green lumber’s colour. But it was proven otherwise because being ignorant in a field does not mean being the same to another one.

An analogous story tells the story of Thales who reserves presses ahead of the olive harvest at a discount. Thales’ plan, however, is to rent them out at a higher price when the demand peaks. Thales could tell when the demand will rise because he has the ability to correctly predict when good harvests will be available in the market. The philosopher Aristotle then inaccurately attributes his success to his ability to accurately foretell the weather.

Green Lumber Fallacy in sports betting

Just like in the case given above, a lot of people expect successful sports bettors to hold a high degree of expertise in anything about sports.

This is not always true. For example, a mathematician who is an expert in calculating probability and is comfortable in playing with numbers could accurately predict the outcome of matches, and thus become successful in betting, even without the knowledge of who’s who or what’s what about teams, players, and coaches.

One does not need a deep knowledge of the players and coaches or history of the Premier League team Arsenal to be able to predict whether they will lose this time or continue their unbeaten streak.

The same goes for someone knowledgeable in sports. Someone could be a scholar of the early life of the Portuguese athlete Cristiano Ronaldo, but could also possess no idea whether he will score two goals in a match between Juventus and Inter Milan. Sports journalists or the paparazzi could know every inch of detail in the life of a sports superstar, but still be bad in betting.

Although, a little knowledge of what is happening in the lives of players or teams of whole leagues could could be a huge aid for the punter, it is not a necessity in placing stakes on the squads or athletes that you think will bring the bacon home.

False Correlations

The Green Lumber does not only tells how sports expertise does not always guarantee success in betting and vice versa, it also relevant in the practice of the punter as it cautions one to not correlate things mistakenly to avoid unwanted results.

For instance, people might correlate a Golden State bad loss to an injury that recently inflicted the Warriors’ top guard Stephen Curry. Different factors, however, could be at play such as a decline of performance in other top players of the team such as Kevin Durant or Klay Thompson.

In another way around, bettors might skip betting on the Golden State in cases when Steph Curry is injured, but the Warriors will actually continue to perform well as there are other good player in the team such as Durant or Thompson.

So, do not worry about being short of rumours in the dramas of the world of sports. If the maths have been done and the confidence says place the bets, then place the bets.

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Gambler's Fallacy

Gambler’s Fallacy: How Bettors Fall Victim to Superstition

Gamblers and superstition

On the 18th of August 1913, gamblers in the famous Casino de Monte-Carlo in Monaco are having a great time after the ball fell on black 26 times in a row. Thinking that the ball will not land on black anymore, they placed their bets to the red. The ball still landed on black. Still thinking that the ball will never touch black, they stayed on red, but the ball still went to black.

The ball landing on black more than 26 times in a row was an extremely unusual occurrence considering the odds of black or red occuring 26 times in a row is 1 in 66.6 million.

The gamblers still went firm on red, while the ball still continued to hit black. As a result, the gamblers lost millions of francs. They incorrectly thought that by betting on red against black will give balance on the bet.

The story was a real event that happened that one fine summer in Monaco, and it was the most famous illustration of an anomaly called ‘Gambler’s Fallacy.’ It also came to be known as the ‘Monte-Carlo fallacy’ after that well-known occasion.

This fallacy mentioned refers to the mistaken belief that events that happen more frequently than normal should happen less likely in the future or vice versa.

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Gambler’s fallacy in betting

Sports bettors sometimes fell victim to superstitions such as the Gambler’s fallacy causing a loss of a significant amount of money. For example, Arsenal has been enjoying a 20-match unbeaten run. Some punters would bet that the Gunners will still get out of the match undefeated. Meanwhile, other bettors might thought otherwise because a balancing loss would definitely come out this time. Arsenal apparently wins and those who thought that the Gunners will not dominate the match will lose their bets.

Despite seeing the consistency in the performance of Arsenal, those who lost their bets still thought otherwise. This is one of the errors sports bettors are making.

This fallacy could also work otherwise. For instance, a lot of people thought that either Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo would win the 2018 Ballon d’Or again this time because they dominated the award for the past ten years. It turns out, Luka Modric topped the award, while Ronaldo only went second and Messi to the fifth.

Dealing with the random

One could not fully blame punters who think the way described in the fallacy as results really are random, like how the black in the Monte-Carlo case was landed 26 times in a row.

Similar cognitive biases are normal and healthy, but completely subjecting to such ways of thinking would eventually result to loss of resources. Bettors who depend on mere gut feeling or superstition will find sports betting unprofitable and costly.

Punters could always use mathematical tricks as tools to guide them in their bets, such as the Kelly criterion and Fibonacci method.

Randomness is the image that one paints when he or she bets unaided, but the keen punter calculates the probability of an event occuring before placing stakes.

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Things to Consider Before Betting

What Are the Things to Consider Before Betting?

A professional bettor always takes the necessary precautions in order to be successful in sports betting.

Trying to be a profitable punter? Check out our guide to becoming a professional sports bettor.

If you are someone who has not yet started placing bets, surely you have tons of questions in mind. Where do you start? How do you bet on sports you know nothing about? What are the things I should know about sports betting?

Here are several things that you should know before betting

Do your Research

Having innate sports knowledge plays an integral part to successful sports betting. Doing research can make you become more educated in the sport you wish to bet on. You can also do research about the different kinds of betting market in order to fully grasp how it works. The more you know, the more you are likely to make good decisions when you start betting. The better your choices, the more money you are likely to make.

Teams/Athletes you are betting on

Since this factor can greatly affect the results of your bets, one of the most important things to consider in sports betting is the quality of the teams or players that are involved. You should consider the talent level and the stats of the team or player you are betting on. Aside from that, it is important to take note of their styles and how they match up against their opponents.

Access a reliable sportsbook

Another factor before placing bets is finding a trustworthy sports trading platform. VOdds is a provider of the next generation football and tennis betting platforms that offers the best aggregated real-time odds and prices from a wide-ranging list of top Asian bookies. Having a reliable sportsbook aggregator can help in finding the best odds for you to place your bets on.

Take advantage of sign-up bonuses

Most sports betting sites offer bonuses to new customers to encourage them to sign up, or to reward regular customer for their loyalty. The deals and bonuses available are one of the major benefits of betting online, so you should try and take advantage of them. It can also have a significant impact on how much money you make or bet overall.

Bet realistically

Never start betting with your eyes set on a million jackpots. Even professional bettors do not have this kind of mindset when betting. You cannot force a winning outcome, and you cannot expect to win every single time. Placing bets with a clear understanding of your odds would definitely help you in managing your emotions whether you win or lose.

Bet money you can afford to lose

This is one of the most basic rules of sports betting. So many people start to place bets with money they really cannot afford to lose since they believe they stand a good chance of winning. Betting is a risky business, and responsibility is one of its most important aspects. This absolutely goes for betting on sports as well.

Be patient

Even professional bettors struggled at first before they became pro at betting. Just like beginners, they underwent a series of losing streaks before they got to where they are now. The key is to have patience and determination. You still have a long way to go before you become successful. But you know the saying, the longer the wait makes it more satisfying when you get there.

Sports betting is actually fun once you get the hang of it, and once you start making profits. Make sure to apply the tips above, and you should be able to start placing your stakes in no time.

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Full-time or Half-Time Bet

Full-time or Half-time Bet? Which One Is Better?

When betting on your regular football match, different options and strategies abound. One of the more popular ones among punters is Full-time/Half-time. This tackles on results from either the first part or the latter part of the game.

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Half-time vs Full-time

Half-time bet

Bettors have to bet on which team they think will score more in the first half—if either home or away team will get the lead— what the score will be, or if match will stand to a draw at 45-minute mark.

Full-time bet

Same principle with half-time bet, but the overall/final result of the game is considered (after 90 minutes).

Statistically speaking, this betting type looks closer on how a match can change from point A to point B; or which team will make the pivotal difference between the first and second half. This is known as a Double Result Bet.

For illustration:

Say you’re going to bet on Real Madrid v Atletico de Madrid for UEFA Super Cup (El Derbi madrileño/The Madrid Derby). You’re confident that Real Madrid, with all their star players, will be ahead by break time. Place your pre-game, half-time bet on site of your choice. If the Los Blancos gets ahead of the scoreboard, you’d win the wager. If you’re going for Half-time Asian handicap, the team must overcome negative odd for you to have a winning bet. (e.g. Real Madrid HT: 0.25 at 2.350).

In addition to your HT bet, you can also place a pick for full-time results (FT).

If you surmise Atletico de Madrid can wipe out Real’s assumed half-time lead come the final whistle, then you can go for a full-time bet on Atletico. In this example, it’s best to give them the advantage of 0.50 at 1.662.

Which one is more profitable to bet on?

Betting at half-time is not just seeing who’s going to perform better at first, but also determining who will be consistent throughout the game. Full-time is predicting how the game will play out no matter the lead, or surprise goals. So, placing bets on both half-time and full-time is really the way to go.

Betting Tip 1

Bet on the underdog team by first half then bet on the favoured team at full-time. If you’d like to have a great catch at every turn, you can also bet on draw results.

Betting Tip 2

Find a sports trading platform where you can compare figures and possible outcomes. Maximize your winnings by having a wide selection of odds from top sportsbooks. Half-time and Full-time odds are usually high for big games so it’d be wise to have several options that will yield returns.

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Here’s What You Should Do When You Lose a Bet

How to Handle Betting Losses

What’s your reaction after a goal was struck by the opposite team you were betting on? Are you thinking about how to get your money back at any cost? Do you feel any rage or frustration? These are common reactions.

Bad runs can cause endless anger and frustration, but losing stakes are almost unavoidable when it comes to sports betting. Even the most skilled bettors has experienced a time where things are going worse for them. However, the most important thing is how you handle these losses.

Trying to be a profitable punter? Check out our guide to becoming a professional sports bettor.

Here are ways to help you cope with the damages of losing a bet

But first things first, you should know one of the golden rules of betting; make sure you only bet with money you can afford to lose. This makes it easier to deal with a bad run.

Take a Break

Imagine you’re a football coach who just witnessed his team lose after a hard-fought tournament. The last thing you need to do is to go straight into another intense fight. The team needs to take a break to reflect on their tactics, and assess the damages. The same principles can be useful to handling a bad run. If you feel like you did poor decision-making skills, or applied your stakes inconsistently, simply take a much needed break to assess yourself. Give yourself some time to look back, and work out why you’ve made a poor decision. There’s no harm in taking a break. Slowing down can even help you cool off and reexamine your strategies.

Analyse your Tactics

Do you ever get that annoying feeling where you are trying something that just won’t work out for you? Did you stick to your staking tactics? Did you analyse a particular match as you had planned to? Was there something wrong in the plan you made? You have to be honest with yourself in order to reevaluate your game plan.

Professional punter Patrick Veitch, one of the most feared full time gamblers in the UK, is continuously developing his approaches in the battle to stay ahead of the game. There are actually vulnerabilities of sticking to only one strategy – it can be the cause of failure among punters. If your tactics before seemed to work out in the beginning, it’s possible that there are some holes in it that caused you to have a bad run now. Don’t always insist on your initial beliefs, and be open to more strategies. Take a look at your betting history, and review your choices.

A good habit to get into is analysing yourself. See where you went wrong, and make notes. There’s no better way to improve yourself than accepting a loss, and working your way through it.

Play more carefully

When you’ve experienced losses, it’s tempting to get the money you lost by placing bigger stakes. It’s actually a bettor’s fallacy, and could damage more than it could do good. More carefully thought through bets are usually the most successful ones.

Cut out the bets you think will help you win, or merely popular bets when a live fixture is on, and focus solely on the aspect/s you know the best. Simplify and use a sports trading platform to get ahold of odds from numerous books. Learn to stay consistent, and stay within the limits you’ve set for yourself.

Understand that losing is a part of the game

Even the best and professional punters experience losses when betting. Losing is a common possibility that all bettors have to deal with as soon as they place their stakes. But every bad run is a good opportunity for all bettors to review their staking tactics, and bet choices. And rather than beating yourself up, look for ways to improve yourself and do better on your next game.

You can even take a moment to sort yourself out, reconsider your strategies, and bet again when you’re all set and ready. Always remember that learning to control your emotions after dealing with a bad run is without a doubt the greatest piece of self-development you can ever get.

Now pick yourself up, prepare more carefully and thoroughly, and have fun!

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