Green Lumber Fallacy

Green Lumber Fallacy in Betting


The term “green lumber” is a strategy coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book ‘Antifragile.’

His anecdote recalls a story of a guy named Joe Siegel who is considered as one of the most successful traders in a commodity called “green lumber”. He had no idea why those lumbers are in that color and he thought the lumber was simply wood painted green. The truth is, green lumber was simply freshly cut and has not been dried.

Despite his ignorance of the nature of the commodity, he was considered the best one and most successful at selling it.

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People assumed that Joe Siegel was knowledgeable with the buy and sell of green lumber but it was proven otherwise, because being ignorant in the field did not stop him from being successful.

How to use Green Lumber in sports betting

Just like in the case given above, a lot of people think that expert sports bettors have a lot of sports knowledge to bet successfully, and it is not always true.

For example, a mathematician who is an expert in calculating probability and is comfortable in playing with numbers could accurately predict the outcome of matches, and thus become successful in betting, even without the knowledge of who’s who or what’s what about teams, players, and coaches.

One does not need a deep knowledge of the players and coaches or history of the Premier League team Liverpool to be able to predict whether they will lose this time or keep their championship trophy.

The same goes for someone knowledgeable in sports. Someone could be a scholar of the early life of the Portuguese athlete Cristiano Ronaldo, but could also possess no idea whether he will score two goals in a match between Juventus and Inter Milan.

Sports journalists or the paparazzi could know every inch of detail in the life of a sports superstar, but still be bad at betting.

Although an idea of what is happening in the lives of players or teams of whole leagues could be a huge help for the punter, it is not a necessity in placing stakes on the squads or athletes that you think will bring the bacon home.

It is still more ideal to look at statistics and probability, or having a betting spreadsheet to keep track of your bets.

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Ложные корреляции

The Green Lumber does not only tell how knowledge and experience of a sport does not always guarantee success in betting and vice versa, it is also relevant in the practice of the punter as it cautions one to not correlate things mistakenly to avoid unwanted results.

For instance, people might correlate a Golden State bad loss to an injury that recently inflicted the Warriors’ top guard Stephen Curry. Different factors, however, could be at play such as a decline of performance in other top players of the team, not just who was injured at the moment.

Another way to look at it, bettors might skip betting on the Golden State Warriors in cases when Curry is injured, but the team will actually continue to perform well as there are other great players such as Klay Thompson and Draymond Green.

So, do not worry about being short of rumours in the dramas of the world of sports. If the maths have been done and the confidence says place the bets, then place the bets. Knowledge doesn’t always mean betting success.

Достаточно ли у вас знаний в области ставок, но вы не смогли отследить актуальные темы о спорте? Не стесняйтесь делать ставку! Войдите чтобы увидеть лучшие цены на вашу ставку или зарегистрируйся испытать новейшее обновление для спортивной торговли.

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